Can We Stop Trying to Rationalize the Election, Please? (Cont’d)
Welcome back to my humble opinions on why the most recent election was a debacle and how it is indicative of a much deeper, long-term problem. In the first installment, I reviewed how double standards, non-voters, and the myth of the working class vote played a vital role in Trump’s victory in 2016. With the help of some statistics and reflection, I hope to show how the same problems plaqued Harris’ campaign and led to the Democrats losing in 2024.
Fast-forward to 2024
So… what did the average voter learn between 2016 and 2024? As it turns out, not a damn thing! According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center, voters were divided on which issues they thought were most important. Among Trump supporters, the economy (93%), immigration (82%) and violent crime (76%) are the leading issues. Just 18% of Trump supporters say racial and ethnic inequality is very important, while just 11% said climate change.
For Harris supporters, health care (76%) and Supreme Court appointments (73%) were the top issues. A large proportion also cited the economy (68%) and abortion (67%) as very important to their vote. In other words, Trump voters once again went to the polls incited by Trump’s hateful rhetoric regarding immigrants stealing jobs and gangs coming to America. Meanwhile, Harris supporters were overwhelmingly concerned with protecting women’s rights, LGBTQ+ rights, and other people who were targeted by the Trump administration and his cronies.
The statistics also indicate that three issues — immigration, abortion, and the economy — increased in importance for voters between 2020 and 2024. This should come as no surprise, given the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in June 2024, Republicans’ insistence that the economy was bad, and Trump’s escalating rhetoric about immigrants, up to and including his ridiculous claim that immigrants were eating pets!
How did this play out in the polls? For starters, gender played a big role! While Harris enjoyed an 8-point lead over Trump among women voters, male voters favored Trump by 12 points. This represented a four-point gain for Trump compared to 2020 but only a one-point gain compared to 2016. In other words, votes were strictly divided along gender lines when there was a female candidate facing off against a serial sex offender and rapist.
But don’t take it from me. According to the Pew analysis, 26% of men and 33% of women surveyed just prior to the election claimed that being a woman was likely to hurt Harris’ chances. When asked if Trump’s gender would hurt or help, only 10% of men and 7% of women surveyed said it would hurt his chances. As has been demonstrated repeatedly, the mere perception of a candidate being “unelectable” makes it a reality!
Next up, there was the racial divide when it came to votes. When it came to Black men, Black women, and Latina Women, Harris had a massive lead over Trump — as high as 85 points! However, White men (22 points), White women (7 points), and — curiously enough — Latino men (10 points) favored Trump. Apparently, this demographic is also swayed by “economic insecurity” and a culture of misogyny, to the point that they overlooked Trump’s threats to deport them en masse!
Last, but not least, there is the education divide. Whereas People of Color favored Harris across the board, White voters with at least one college degree favored Harris overall (by 8 points), a significant increase over Biden and Clinton. However, White voters with no degree overwhelmingly favored Trump (34 points), a trend that becomes even more pronounced when gender is considered.
Whereas White women with a college degree favored Harris by 17 points, women without a college degree favored Trump by 28 points. White men favored Trump without or without a degree; for the former, by 2 points and 40 points for the latter. What to make of this? Education was clearly a factor, and it’s not hard to see why it’s a decisive one.
The Dumbing Down of America
According to a recent Gallup Poll, 37% of adults surveyed in the U.S. believe in Creationism. This represents a drop since the early 2000s, but those who conducted the survey also noted an increase in entrenchment. The latest results indicate that 37% of Americans believe that God created humans in their present form within the past 10,000 years. Only 24% said they accept that humans evolved over millions of years without God’s involvement. Meanwhile, 34% straddled both theories, saying humans evolved but with God’s guidance.
That’s 58% of people who accept evolution in full or in part, a 6% drop from a similar poll conducted in 2020. This not only places it below the global median of 74%, but it also places the U.S. behind other developed nations like South Korea (70%), Australia (72%), the UK (73%), Taiwan (74%), Italy (75%), Canada (77%), the Netherlands (77%), France (81%), Germany (81%), the Czech Republic (82%), Sweden (85%), Spain (87%), and Japan (88%).
When it comes to vaccination, distrust is on the rise in America. Between April 2021 and July 2024, the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania conducted a national health survey. According to their results, 28% of those surveyed in 2024 mistakenly believed that COVID-19 vaccines were responsible for thousands of deaths, compared to 22% in 2021. Meanwhile, the proportion that knew this claim to be untrue fell from 66% to 55% over the same period.
Equally disturbing, 22% of Americans surveyed said they believe that it’s less risky to get infected with COVID-19 than to get the vaccine, more than double the 10% reported during the 2021 vaccine rollout. The proportion of respondents who mistakenly thought that COVID-19 vaccines change human DNA reached 15%, nearly double the 8% who believed it in 2021.
In addition to vaccines and evolution, the acceptance of conspiracy theories is on the rise in America all across the board. In 2021, the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire conducted an online survey called POLES 2021. The survey consisted of 1,134 U.S. adults answering questions about popular conspiracy theories, including the Moon Landing being faked, Earth being flat, Earth revolving around the Sun, and Climate Change being real.
Some key takeaways were that 19% of respondents were either Flat-Earthers or unsure on the subject. Another 25% believed in the “Young Earth” theory or were unsure about it, while 17% disputed the fact that Earth orbits the Sun. Meanwhile, 29% believed the conspiracy theory that NASA faked the Moon Landing or were unsure if it was true. In short, between 17% and 29% of Americans have accepted (or are considering) demonstrable falsehoods that thrive on ignorance.
The study also cross-referenced acceptance of conspiracy theories with those who approved of Trump’s presidency. As you can see from the chart above, the difference was quite significant. In virtually every case, Trump supporters outnumbered non-Trump supporters in terms of accepting conspiracy theories or being unsure about them — even doubling them in the case of vaccination theories.
According to a 2022 survey by the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA), 48.5% of U.S. adults reported reading at least one book in the past year. This was down from 52.7% in 2017 and 54.6% in 2012. Meanwhile, social media and alt-right sites have arisen to fill the gap. These sites not only prioritize soundbites and content that maximizes the number of clicks. They are also not subject to the same quality standards or fact-checking as traditional media.
What’s worse, reading comprehension levels are also declining. According to a 2019 NEAP survey, less than 40% of students in public and non-public schools were reading at or above grade level. Furthermore, stats compiled in 2022 showed that 21% of adults in the US were illiterate, while 54% of adults had a below sixth-grade level of literacy. This trend has been paralleled by the decades-long decline in education rates and standards.
According to the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), a key global education ranking released in December 2023, test scores have been declining substantially in the past two decades. In terms of math, the decline has been especially bad, with the U.S. ranking in the bottom half of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations.
- American students scored 13 points lower than in 2018, the lowest U.S. math scores recorded in the history of the PISA math test (since 2003).
- More than 33% of U.S. 15-year-olds are considered to be low performers, up from just over 25% in 2012.
- Only 7% of American students can do math at advanced levels.
- The United States has more students in the bottom group and fewer students in the top group than most other OECD nations.
In short, a growing number of Americans are uninformed and ignorant, making them easy marks for misinformation, conspiracy theories, and outright lies. Alas, this doesn't even begin to address the largest contributor to Trump's election victories.
“It’s the Non-Voters Stupid!”
As noted, roughly 90 million registered voters did not cast ballots in the 2024 election. This was a drop from the 100 million who didn’t vote in 2016 but an increase from the 80 million who didn’t vote in 2020. According to another Pew Research survey, the reasons these citizens did not vote included the following:
- 35% said they thought their vote would not make a difference
- 31% said that they did not like politics
- 18% said they were not registered or not eligible to vote
- 17% said that they did not care about the outcome
- 15% said voting was inconvenient
- 8% said they forgot to vote.
Compare this to the 2016 election, where the predominant reasons for not voting were that they didn’t like either candidate (25%), that they were uninterested and didn’t think their vote mattered (15%), and being too busy or due to a school or work conflict (14%). In 2020, the reasons were similar, with 23% saying they were not interested in politics, 20% saying they did not like the candidates, 16% saying they felt their vote wouldn’t make a difference, and 10% saying they were undecided on whom to vote for.
Looking back further, we can see a significant trend. Between 2000 and 2016, the number of non-voters saying they “didn’t like either candidate” went from 8% to 25%, a more than threefold increase. This included Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012, where the number of “I don’t like either candidate” hovered around 13%. A very clear pattern of apathy is at play here. But I can’t for the life of me understand why!!!!
In 2024, abortion rights and mass deportations were central issues, much like LGBTQ rights, violence against women, and violence against protesters and the media. Yet, more than 31.5 million were convinced their vote didn’t matter! A further 15 million claimed they didn’t like either candidate and didn’t care who won. One would think that they had learned how much their vote mattered after the Charlottesville riots, when children were dying in cages at the border, and when Trump decided to deploy troops to “deal” with a Caravan of asylum seekers.
There was also the way Trump’s negligence and incompetence led to the U.S. experiencing more deaths per capita (3,685 per million, over 1.2 million in total) than any developed nation and greater job losses. There was also the little matter of his impeachments (plural!), attempted coup, attempted insurrection, stolen documents, and how the SCOTUS, stacked with his right-wing picks, allowed abortion to be criminalized.
This led to him being routed from office in 2020, where Biden not only won the Electoral College but also secured the popular vote by a record 7 million! Nevertheless, 80 million people stayed home in 2020 for the same reasons. In this case, 30% didn’t like either candidate (or were unsure), 16% felt their vote didn’t matter, and another 23% weren’t interested in politics. Luckily, 20 million undecided voters, unhappy liberals, and moderates managed to get out to vote, bringing in a sweeping victory.
In 2024, there were no excuses for being so cynical and apathetic! The rights and lives of millions of people were at stake. A woman’s right to choose was literally on the line. Trump also promised retribution against his personal enemies and said he would declare martial law and use the U.S. armed forces to forcibly deport 11 million immigrants. And his allies at Policy 2025 openly shared that they were plotting to replace all government officials with Trump loyalists. These are the kinds of plans one expects to find in the Nazi playbook!
But once again, 31.5 million Americans didn’t think their vote mattered, while more than 30 million seemed to see no appreciable difference between the two candidates. In 2016 and 2024, you had an establishment candidate running against a vile, violent, openly fascist sex offender who hates Muslims, Mexicans, People of Colour, and America’s allies but loves its enemies, its White Supremacists, and praises Hitler.
The failure here is not on behalf of the Democrats for not being perfect. It’s a failure on behalf of the voters to demand such perfection in the first place. Not from both candidates, mind you, but from their own side while giving the other a free pass to do anything, no matter how vile and horrific. This kind of behavior is inexplicably misguided, self-righteous, and self-defeating. At least, it was in past elections. When faced with the prospect of Trump’s plans for America in 2025, it’s fucking stupid!
Literally, anyone would be a better choice! And if voters couldn’t see that, they are entirely to blame and need a serious reality check and a boot in the ass! The ship is going down all around them and they continue to bitch about the quality of the life boats!
Drink the Sand
At this point, I would like to remind everyone what Sanders said, but the longer version this time:
“First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well,” Sanders continued in his statement. “While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right…
“Will the big money interests and well-paid consultants who control the Democratic Party learn any real lessons from this disastrous campaign? Will they understand the pain and political alienation that tens of millions of Americans are experiencing? Do they have any ideas as to how we can take on the increasingly powerful Oligarchy which has so much economic and political power? Probably not.”
All due respect to Bernie Sanders, but that’s just bullshit and pontification! To me, it sounded like the kind of armchair quarterbacking you always hear after a big loss: “We would have won if you did things my way!” Given that many of his supporters continue to argue this eight years after he lost in the 2016 primary, I’d say he’s more than a little convinced of that himself. But given the circumstances, what he said was neither constructive or even accurate.
In 2016, millions of White working-class Americans voted for a vile bigot because he gave them someone to blame. In 2024, they voted for him again in spite of the fact that many had lost their jobs under Trump and got new jobs under Biden. This is not a failure on behalf of the Democratic Party! It’s a testament to how racism, ignorance, and fear thrive in American politics, as well as the power of fringe and right-media to corrupt minds and brainwash people. It’s also an indictment of the American education system for not promoting media awareness and a national culture that fosters hostility towards knowledge and learning.
In addition, millions of Americans sat on their hands in all three elections because they didn’t think it would impact their lives, didn’t like their choices, and felt like it was a decision between the “lesser of two evils.” The “evils,” when it came to Democrats, were that they were not perfect and had some genuine black marks on their record. But this did NOT make them comparable to a fascist, narcissistic, sexual predator, and buffoon who surrounded himself with fringe idiots, liars, frauds, and White supremacists.
Again, double standards apply, especially where female candidates are concerned.
I think a better summation of the problem was given in the film The American President, specifically the scene where WH Advisor Lewis (Michael J. Fox) and President Shepard (Michael Douglas) talk about leadership in America:
Lewis: “[The American people] want leadership. They’re so thirsty for it they’ll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there’s no water, they’ll drink the sand.”
Shepherd: “Lewis, we’ve had presidents who were beloved, who couldn’t find a coherent sentence with two hands and a flashlight. People don’t drink the sand because they’re thirsty. They drink the sand because they don’t know the difference.”
Sanders did make some good recommendations about going grassroots and putting an end to “corporate Democrats,” but that idea is a bit wistful. Hillary Clinton took that approach when drafting a national health care plan during her husband’s first term — focusing on grassroots support and criticizing corporations and insurance companies — and it failed rather spectacularly. Sanders himself relied on this approach in the 2016 election, to great effect. But in the end, he lost because voters felt he wasn’t as “electable” as Hillary.
That whole “establishment” stuff cuts both ways, I’m afraid.
What’s more, they’d need to pass campaign finance reform, something the Democratic party has been fighting for for years (while Republicans have blocked it at every pass). Second, the Fairness Doctrine needs to be reinstituted to ensure that outlets like FoxNews, Breitbart, and other alt-right networks are not free to disseminate their garbage and lies, much of which comes directly from Russian trollfarms!
In the meantime, Democrats and disillusioned voters need to stop blaming themselves and each other and face some hard facts. Politics in America have become a toxic joke, the game is rigged, and only one side is playing by the rules. And this fracas is powered by bigotry, entitlement, and the mistaken belief that the voters are always right (at least, as far as their interests go). As the Depression and World War II taught us, democracy doesn't guarantee a thing. Only when you have an informed and educated populace can a democracy and its people (ALL OF ITS PEOPLE!) thrive.
